Texas Housing Market Predictions 2024

Texas. The Lone Star State. The home of cowboys, big cities and barbecue. Here lately, it seems like lots of folks are buying homes in Texas. In the last two years, the population of Texas has grown five times the rate of the United States as a whole.¹

Are you fixin’ to mosey on down to Texas? If so, you’re probably wondering about the Texas housing market. Well, you’re in luck! We wrangled up the latest news on the Texas housing market to give you a heads up on what to expect in the Lone Star State.

Now, the best way to learn about the housing market in Texas is to talk to a real estate agent who actually lives in Texas (you can find one through our RamseyTrusted program), but these numbers and predictions will give you a good idea of what to look out for.

Y’all ready? Let’s go!

How Is the Housing Market in Texas?

Inventory (available homes for sale) went up 15.2% in Texas in the last year, which means you’ll have more options if you’re wanting to buy a house. On average, homes stayed on the market for 48 days in the third quarter of 2023, compared to 31 days in 2022. Total home inventory is 3.7 months in Q3 2023 compared to 2.7 in Q3 2022. That’s good news for buyers, but in order for buyers to have plenty of options, inventory needs to be six months.²

Higher interest rates have slowed the market down some in Texas, and house prices decreased by 1.5% from Q3 2022 (January–March) to Q3 2023.³

Here’s a look at Texas housing market numbers from Q3 2023 compared to Q3 2022:

Texas Housing Market	Q3 2023	Q3 2022	Percent Change
Median Price*	$340,000	$345,178	-1.5%
Inventory (Active Listings)	101,078	87,741	+15.2%
Closed Sales	87,877	97,424	-9.8%
Median Time to Sale**	82 days	71 days	+17.1%4
Average Mortgage Rate*** (15-Year Fixed)	6.72%	5.96%	+12.8%5

_{*Data is from September 2023. Median sale price refers to the midpoint—half the homes were sold for more, half for less.**Median time to sale is the number of days between the listing and closing of a home sale—half of homes selling this quarter took more time to sell, half took less. ***September data.}

Texas Housing Market in Major Cities

Looking at Texas as a whole might not tell the entire story about prices in local housing markets. So, let’s zoom in to some individual Texas cities. Here’s a look at median home prices in four of Texas’ biggest cities: Houston, San Antonio, Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin.

	Houston	San Antonio	Dallas-Fort Worth	Austin
Median Price	$336,125	$319,900	$400,000	$456,000
Year-Over-Year % Change	-1.1%	-1.6%	-1.2%	-7.9%6

How Does Texas Compare to the National Housing Market?

Now let’s see how Texas’ housing market compares to markets in other parts of the country.

The median home price for the U.S. was $406,900 in Q3 of 2023—or about $67,000 higher than the median price in Texas. The national price went up 2.2% compared to the year before.

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Cities that saw declines in prices (similar to Texas cities) include Phoenix (-1.5%) and Salt Lake City (-1.2%). Cities with big increases in prices include San Jose (9.6%), San Diego (8.7%), Boston (6.6%), and Miami (5.7%).⁷

Yes, prices are kind of all over the map. But generally, prices have gone up slightly all over the country.

Here’s how home prices increased by region year over year:

• South: +1.7%
• Midwest: +5.2%
• Northeast: +5.3%
• West: +0.6%⁸

Compared to those numbers, Texas’ -1.5% growth in home prices seems similar to what the West experienced as a whole.

Texas Housing Market Predictions for 2024

We’ve taken a look at the numbers, so let’s shift into seeing what some real estate gurus are predicting about the Texas housing market heading into 2024.

1. The market won’t be as hot but supply will stay tight.

Remember how crazy the housing market was back in 2022? Buyers were freaking out, and sellers got multiple offers over asking price.

Things have definitely calmed down both in Texas and all over the country. The Texas market now has more active listings, which gives buyers more choices, said Marcus Phipps, chairman of Texas REALTORS®, in a media release.

“We are continuing to see the housing market progress toward more balance between buyers and sellers,” Phipps said. “An increase in the supply of homes and the average number of days homes stay on the market means that buyers in many areas may have more choices and a little more time to make a decision.”⁹

2. Prices will relax, but not crash.

Prices have relaxed in Texas and gone down slightly in many cities, but you should expect prices to go up some in 2024.

Currently, the market has about 3.7 months of home inventory. That number needs to hit 6–6.5 months just for the market to be balanced.¹⁰ So, as long as supply remains tight, prices will continue to increase.

3. Demand for buying a house will stay strong.

With inflation and interest rates still impacting family budgets, it’s no wonder lots of folks are cutting back on spending to create more margin in their budget.

Inflation and high interest rates have decreased buyer demand, but it’s still strong. And Texas is still a popular place for people looking to relocate from states with higher taxes and home prices. Texas is the number three destination for international home buyers (behind Florida and California).¹¹

When Will the Housing Market Crash in Texas?

If you’re waiting for the housing market to crash, you’ll be waiting for a while (like, probably forever). That’s because for housing prices to totally plummet, inventory would have to go way up to exceed demand. And no one foresees that happening anytime soon.

Texas Real Estate Forecast for the Next Five Years

Making real estate market predictions one year ahead is tough, but making predictions five years ahead is like predicting the winner of the 2029 Kentucky Derby. (The 3-year-old horses who will run that race aren’t even born yet!)

For the most part, economists expect home prices to grow at a much slower pace (in the 2–4% range) over the next five years.¹²

Inventory is expected to increase slightly as interest rates start to come down. The general feeling is that rates will be in the 6% range in 2024 and could drop below 6% sometime in 2025.¹³

But there’s no telling what could happen between now and then, so take those numbers with a grain of salt. It’s never a great idea to base your plans on a forecast because factors like the state of the economy, pandemics and natural disasters all affect the market.

Should You Buy or Sell in This Texas Market?

Here’s the deal: Don’t make a decision to buy or sell right now just based on the housing market. It’s important to understand real estate trends so you have some context, but you really need to make sure you’re financially prepared to buy a house.

That means being debt-free with a full emergency fund worth 3–6 months of your typical expenses, and having enough cash saved up to make a down payment of at least 5–10%. (By the way, a 20% down payment is best because it means you won’t have to pay for private mortgage insurance.)

And if you’re selling a house, you need to make sure you can afford the move. It also wouldn’t be a bad idea to line up a new place to live—though you never want to buy a new house before selling your old one.